CBOT agricultural futures drop on Black Sea grain export deal

CHICAGO, July 24 (Xinhua) -- CBOT agricultural futures were lower in the past week as a deal on Russia-Ukraine grain export corridor has been reached, Chicago-based research company AgResource has said.

Corn futures fell as the Russia-Ukraine grain corridor deal was signed. December corn at 5.50 to 5.75 U.S. dollars has accounted for a smoothing of Black Sea logistics and favorable Eastern Midwest weather.

But AgResource expects extreme market volatility to persist, seeing the six-week correction in raw material prices as nearing an end.

For December corn, seasonal lows are pegged at 5.40 to 5.60 dollars, with upside pegged at 7.50 to 8.00 dollars in winter and early 2023.

AgResource said the corn market has not yet solved extreme balance sheet tightness. Ongoing La Nina is a concern in Argentina and Brazil with drought deepening across both countries. And the EU drought will mandate that it becomes a massive corn importer from Brazil.

Global wheat futures ended slightly lower. It appears that the collapse from late spring was eased by the coming increase in the Black Sea shipments.

Current prices and smoother Black Sea logistics will encourage higher global consumption. But concern over a 2 to 4 million metric tons reduction of Argentine wheat remains high as drought persists into August. If Ukraine wheat is unavailable to the world from marine ports, wheat will be 2 to 3 dollars/bushel undervalued.

Soybean futures remained under pressure last week while Western climate conditions were hot and dry.

U.S. soybean condition ratings slipped 1 percentage point last week to 61 percent. Extreme heat has stressed crops in the Great Plains and Western Midwest, while rainfall totals have been limited.

AgResource expects the national crop ratings to decline by 2 to 3 percent this week. With the most critical growing season lying ahead, soybean futures are undervalued, it said.